A lot of film lovers don’t watch the Oscar broadcast because they think it’s uncool. They don’t watch SNL because it hasn’t been good in years and so forth. I still watch SNL because it’s the only live improv show on television and I watch it the day after without the commercials. I never miss the cold open or the Weekend Update segments. And while I don’t think the Academy Awards winners mean a lot in terms of film history, I never pay attention to celebrity gossip so the Oscar broadcast is the one evening a year I get to peak at celebrity culture.

Here are my choices for who should win an Oscar on March 12, in the categories for which I saw all or most of the nominees.

Actor in a Leading Role

I still haven’t seen The Whale or Living, so my pick is Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin. I don’t understand why Gleeson is nominated for a supporting role in this instead of a leading role! I liked Austin Butler in Elvis and Paul Mescal in Aftersun but Farrell continues to amaze me.

Actor in a Supporting Role

I’d give it to Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin (although was that not a leading role?) Ke Huy Quan was great in Everything Everywhere All at Once and everyone loves a comeback so he’ll probably win.

Actress in a Leading Role

Andrea Riseborough is the big surprise here, and her performance in To Leslie was powerful in a just okay indie film. I loved Ana de Armas in Blonde (middling feelings for the film, though), Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once but no performance of any gender stunned me as much as Cate Blanchett’s in Tár

Actress in a Supporting Role

I loved Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin, liked but wasn’t wowed by either Jamie Lee Curtis or Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once and I haven’t seen the Angela Bassett or Hong Chau films they were nominated for.

Directing

I would give it to Todd Field for the dazzling and daring Tár. I could see Spielberg winning for sentimental reasons or Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert winning as part of a Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep.

Documentary Feature Film

I only saw Fire of Love in this category and can’t wait to see All That Breathes and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. My guess is the Laura Poitras doc (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed) will win.

International Feature Film

I’m usually well-versed for this category but since Triangle of Sadness was nominated as a best picture instead of in the international category, I’ve only seen one (EO) of the nominees. I loved Skolimowski’s EO and suspect it could win but All Quiet on the Western Front is a strong contender as well.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

All five nominees are very strong here. If Todd Field doesn’t win the Best Director award he’ll probably pick up the original screenplay Oscar. Otherwise it will go to The Fabelmans. I wouldn’t mind seeing Triangle of Sadness get an upset win.

Best Picture

My pick would be Tár but I don’t see it winning for best picture. I think it will be either The Banshees of Inisherin or Everything Everywhere All at Once.